What does the Increased Fossil Fuel Scarcity mean for the Arctic Region? A Quantitative and Qualitative Content Analysis of Canada, Denmark, Norway, the United States and Russia's Arctic Strategy

Abstract: This bachelor thesis asks the question, what does the increased fossil fuel scarcity mean for the Arctic region? It further investigates the aim and motives by the five main Arctic states. With the use of structural realism, existing research on the parallels between resource scarcity and conflict and, the combination of two methodological approaches: quantitative and qualitative content analysis, I argue in this study that the five states will act in accordance with the structural realist way and exploit the Arctic due to the protection of their national interests and security. This thesis highlights that, firstly, there is a process of climate change enabling the accessibility to extracting fossil fuel. Secondly, there is an ongoing militarization of the region. With that being said, I argue that the race for fossil fuel will prevail and this will create a destabilizing Arctic region with environmental impacts and militarization that can lead to problematic disputes and even conflicts. Therefore, the Arctic is a vulnerable region with a questionable future due to its economic stakes and militarization.