The value of iron ore and timber in Sweden : An ex post study of the United Nations valuation framework for green national accounts

Abstract: Green national accounts are a complement to the more traditional GDP measure which includes natural capital and the depreciation and regeneration of natural capital. The United Nations have developed an international standard model, the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, for valuing natural resources within the green national accounts. The method is based on forecasts of future streams of expected incomes from the resource. This study aims to find out whether the valuation method used to forecast future incomes from iron ore and timber according to the international standard is consistent with the actual outcomes. In Sweden, previous studies have been made to develop green national accounts from the 1800s onward. By using the United Nations’ current and previous valuation methods and performing calculations on historical resource rents it is possible to evaluate how well the methods can estimate true future values. This study shows that both valuation methods systematically misestimate the future income streams from both resources.