Dynamic interaction in a limited war : A single case study of the Russian-Ukrainian dynamic interaction in the conflict in eastern Ukraine

Abstract: The aim of this thesis is to explore the dynamics interaction between Russia and Ukraine in 2014-2015 to explain why the limited war did not escalate into a major war, which could also provide an explanation for the stalemate in the conflict today. This thesis argues that existing literature has not thoroughly examined the dynamic interaction between Russia and Ukraine. The theory of escalation was applied to the case, which focuses on salient limits in conflicts. By using qualitative content analysis, this thesis presents an analysis of the escalatory steps undertaken and the salient limits that Russia and Ukraine signalled to each other in the conflict. The main findings of this thesis suggest that neither Russia nor Ukraine wanted a major war. Both Russia and Ukraine took careful actions to keep the conflict within its salient limits that the states had agreed on through the bargaining process. Russia demanded that Donbas would remain an integral part of Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that Russia only had the aim of destabilising Ukraine through the separatists to prevent Ukraine’s incorporation with the West and NATO.