Requirements for Modelling WUI Fire Evacuation by Unconventional Means

Abstract: Wildfires pose a significant safety issue, especially when they interact with urban areas, known as wildland urban interface (WUI) fires. As wildfire numbers are rising and developments near wildlands are increasing, there is an increased need to model all types of evacuation in order to prepare and inform evacuating authorities and evacuees. There is currently no research on the requirements needed to model WUI fire evacuation by unconventional modes of transport (by sea or air). The focus of this research is therefore to identify the types of model functionality and performance that would be required to represent evacuation by alternate means (via sea or air) in a WUI fire scenario and to identify whether current models can simulate this. This research aims to aid with decision making for future planning and real-time applications. Case studies, where unconventional WUI fire evacuations have taken place, have been analysed to find factors where they might differ from more conventional forms of transport. Complexity of routes, individual decision making and movements of evacuees from these case studies have then been investigated, which has allowed modelling functionality for unconventional WUI fire evacuations to be developed for both pedestrian and traffic models. General modelling tools and methods have then been explored to find which approaches are most suitable for these kinds of evacuations. Finally, the changes in general outputs from both pedestrian and traffic models have been investigated to address the specific modelling functionality identified. It has been found that there are significant gaps in modelling unconventional WUI fire evacuation, as not all functionality requirements for these kinds of evacuations can be represented by current modelling software. However, this research has formed a basis for producing a comprehensive modelling tool to represent unconventional WUI evacuation. Through the tools produced, the functionality identified, the framework of modelling types and how the functionality would affect model results qualitatively; a guidance is given to future model developers on how to simulate WUI fire evacuations by boat or aircraft.