"Truth, Justice and Peace" : A quantitative analysis of the impact of Truth and Reconciliation Commissions on conflict recurrence

Abstract: Time has passed since truth and reconciliation commissions (TRCs) started to grow in popularity. The general patterns of their effect on the post-conflict societies are still unexplored. The main claim is that establishing a TRC will reduce the likelihood of conflict recurrence compared to other forms of transitional justice as TRCs are especially well equipped to mitigate reasons for conflict recurrence. This paper uses quantitative methods with the PCJ dataset and the UCDP dyadic dataset to analyse the trends of different types of transitional justice between the years 1946-2006. The logistic regression showed a negative relationship between establishment of TRCs and conflict recurrence. The main implication of these findings is that there are general patterns of TRCs having an effect, which need to be further researched.