Closeness and turnout: The 2016 Georgian parliamentary election

Abstract: In this thesis I examine how two variables: closeness and the TP-share (two-party-share) of votes impact turnout in elections. I use data from the 2016 Georgian parliamentary election and its two-rounds of election in the majoritarian districts. This field of research poses a wide variety of methodological approaches. One concerns the definition of the dependent variable, turnout. Instead of only using the turnout in the districts in the 2nd round I look at the change in turnout in the districts between the 1st round and the 2nd round of elections and use statistical analysis to test the impact of the two variables. I find that closeness and the two-party share of votes have a significant positive effect on turnout. Previous studies have all used their own different ways to define the closeness variable. Therefore, I also test hypotheses connected to the choice of closeness-measurement. I establish that the mpm (multi-party-margin) and the tpm (two-party-margin) are best suited for explaining the closeness-turnout hypothesis.