The (In)visible Hand of the EU : How the EU has affected changes in Turkey's Asylum and Refugee Policy?

Abstract: Previous literature on the Europeanization of candidate countries has lacked careful empirical investigations into how the process drives domestic policies to change in line with the EU acquis. Selecting on the least-likely case of Turkey and its refugee and asylum policy, I identify that previous work has assumed that Turkey’s policy shifts have been driven by rationalist cost- benefit calculations of its government. The purpose of this study has been to empirically investigate and trace the mechanisms of Europeanization in the selected case, in order to thereby contribute to knowledge on the process of Europeanization in candidate countries in general, and address to the previous research gap. Given this purpose, I have aimed to produce answers to the research question: how has the EU affected Turkey’s asylum and refugee policy after the declaration of candidacy status? I hypothesize that a rationalist model driven by the EU’s conditionality can indeed explain domestic policy changes in Turkey, but also that an alternative mechanism of socialization has been at play. Tracing the process of Europeanization through secondary sources, the results show that what started with behavioral-adaptation of domestic policy change in alignment with the EU’s laws, norms and demands between 1999 and 2010, between 2011 and 2018 the Turkish asylum and refugee policies started to step away from the push power of the external incentives. Nonetheless, significant domestic policy changes continued, suggesting evidence against the rationalist conditionality model of Europeanization in this period. However, I argue that the results are not strong enough to make the claim Turkey’s domestic policy change was driven by a mechanism of socialization, but rather suggest there has been initiation of a switch between the mechanisms.