Real-time forecasting of dietary habits and user health using Federated Learning with privacy guarantees

Abstract: Modern health self-monitoring devices and applications, such as Fitbit and MyFitnessPal, empower users to take concrete actions and set fitness and lifestyle goals based on their recorded trends and statistics. Predicting such trends is beneficial in the road of achieving long-time targets, as the individuals can adjust their diets and habits at any point to guarantee success. The design and implementation of such a system, which also respects user privacy, is the main objective of our work.This application is modelled as a time-series forecasting problem. Given the historical data of users, we aim to predict their eating and lifestyle habits in real-time. We apply the federated learning paradigm to our use-case be- cause of the highly-distributed nature of our data and the privacy concerns of such sensitive recorded information. However, federated learning from het- erogeneous sequences of data can be challenging, as even state-of-the-art ma- chine learning techniques for time-series forecasting can encounter difficulties when learning from very irregular data sequences. Specifically, in the pro- posed healthcare scenario, the machine learning algorithms might fail to cater to users with unique dietary patterns.In this work, we implement a two-step streaming clustering mechanism and group clients that exhibit similar eating and fitness behaviours. The con- ducted experiments prove that learning federatively in this context can achieve very high prediction accuracy, as our predictions are no more than 0.025% far from the ground truth value with respect to the range of each feature. Training separate models for each group of users is shown to be beneficial, especially in terms of the training time, but it is highly dependent on the parameters used for the models and the training process. Our experiments conclude that the configuration used for the general federated model cannot be applied to the clusters of data. However, a decrease in prediction error of more than 45% can be achieved, given the parameters are optimized for each case.Lastly, this work tackles the problem of data privacy by applying state-of- the-art differential privacy techniques. Our empirical study shows that noising the gradients sent to the server is unsuitable for small datasets and cancels out the benefits obtained by prior users’ clustering. On the other hand, noising the training data achieves remarkable results, obtaining a differential privacy level corresponding to an epsilon value of 0.1 with an increase in the observed mean absolute error by a factor of only 0.21.