Another Failed State in the Gulf of Aden : Applying scenario-planning methodology on piracy in the Gulf of Aden

University essay from Försvarshögskolan

Abstract: The Gulf of Aden holds one of the strategic chokepoint along the important Eurasian maritime trade route. On both sides of the Gulf of Aden lie countries in need of political stability. In the south lies Somalia, one of the worlds longest failed states and hosts of pirates violently disrupting maritime trade in the region. On its northern shores lies Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world and home to the terrorist movement Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. This thesis aims to look deeper into what effect on piracy another failed state in the region would have and to illustrate that the thesis describes a scenario where Yemen has followed Somalia’s footsteps and developed into a failed state. Applying Lindgren and Bandhold’s method of scenario planning and through a quantitative analysis, recent trends affecting piracy development were identified. Through a scenario cross four different scenarios were developed to illustrate the effects a failed state Yemen would have on piracy leading to which new challenges the EU might be faced with in the region. The overall conclusions are that a failed state Yemen would have a negative effect on the efforts in mitigating piracy and pirates, driven by opportunity and profit, would benefit from further instability in the region. The thesis supports previous research regarding the connection between maritime piracy in the Gulf of Aden and failed states and illustrate the multifaceted challenges the EU could face as a consequence of the new development of piracy. 

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