Retrospective simulations of heating consumption in French dwellings

Abstract: Res-IRF is an energy-economy model of heating consumption in French dwellings developed at CIRED and calibrated against 2012. It is meant to project the evolution of the building stock and the heating demand by 2050 in response to socio-economic parameters, such as energy price and population, and public policies, such as thermal regulations or incentives for renovation. Res-IRF captures the relevant determinants of household decisions related to energy efficiency improvements and energy demand (sufficiency). The aim of the work presented in this report is to calibrate the model against a past year, to run it from this start date to 2012, and to compare the simulation results with observed data on this period. After an overview of the French residential sector in the last 40 years, this report aims at presenting the model and how it was calibrated against year 1984 and adjusted to the past situation of the building stock. Then, the results of a sensitivity analysis on key parameters of the model are compared to reality and it is discussed how the model can be improved to fit the data better. The main results show that the model accurately replicates the evolution of the building stock until 2012. However, the results do not fit well the data of repartition of heating fuels, especially for fuel oil and natural gas. This may be due to the structure of the model which allows fuel switch only for renovating dwellings; then it could miss possible fuel switches from fuel oil to natural gas without renovation due to the expansion of the natural gas network in France between 1980 and 2000. Furthermore, the actual unit consumption, which is a key output of the model, is well replicated by the model, with an error of 5 to 10%.