Dependence and coercion in the shared neighbourhood. : How Russia influenced the South Caucasus in their path to EU Association

Abstract: In 2010 the EU initiated negotiations for new agreements forming the legal basis for relations between it and partner countries of the EaP, termed Association Agreements (AA). Negotiations were entered with all three countries in the South Caucasus as well as Ukraine and Moldova, and foresaw greater political association through extensive rule harmonisation. Yet, when negotiations came to an end at the Eastern Partnership summit in November 2013, Azerbaijan had dropped out, Ukraine made a last minute U-turn, and Armenia instead opted for Russian President Putin’s brand new Eurasian Customs Union (ECU). At the time, the change of events was to a large extent ascribed to Russian coercion. Based on empirical material from over 200 news articles, I perform a descriptive data analysis and process tracing, to elucidate what instruments were used and why. I argue that there is a strong relation between the prior relations of dependence between the target and Russia, lending coercive potential to varying degrees. The individual relations of dependence not only explain the choice of instrument but also its relative success.