Evaluating Business Models and Battery Usage in Battery Electric Trucks: : A Simulation Model for Future Scenarios
Abstract: Road freight transport is changing, with an uncertain future and climate change calling for adaptation. Batteries as the power source are one solution for sustainable transport, yet these are affected by degrading effects, eventually making the batteries unusable. However, previous studies have shown that stationary second-life applications are possible for the used batteries. Another possibility is to reuse batteries in trucks with lower load requirements, thus extending their useful life, which also could aid in coping with the large number of batteries that battery electric vehicles will require. Nevertheless, few scholars have focused on this, and the literature is scarce. How battery usage affects truck performance in different life cycles must then be answered. Additionally, a proper business model must be adopted since the ownership of batteries and responsibility for the degrading becomes less clear with several users. Hence, investigating how more circular business models for batteries perform compared to linear business models is enticing. However, the uncertain future makes several possible future scenarios equally likely to happen, leading to future planning struggles. This work dives into the problem by developing a simulation model that uses a future scenario framework to simulate the effect of battery usage and different business models in the future. This work has several valuable contributions. First, it shows that using batteries in several lifecycles has benefits. Second, more circular business models for batteries can be more beneficial than linear business models, depending on the future values and payment methods. Above all, this work also has implications on a greater level, showing the potential value of using simulation methods in product and business model development processes. Using such models can develop products and business models to be sustainable, robust against futu reuncertainties, and perform the best on a module, product, and company level. In short, this study has shown the value of combining future scenarios with technical and business model aspects to simulate the future and gain insights for development.
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