A Conceptual Framework for Long-Term Strategic Foresight
Abstract: As global connectivity becomes the driver of value and vulnerability, new concerns are coming into the foreground that needs to be addressed – for example, the resource security-climate nexus, or the means of governing emerging technologies. The broader context and outset for this thesis is the defense and civil security landscape. More specifically, strategic foresight and the increasing challenge of anticipating and predicting the long-term (+20-40 years) future in terms of uncertainty and complexity is investigated in the context of Saab AB; a global producer of products, services and solutions within the defense and civil security industry. Technology-intensive organizations such as Saab, with long product life cycles and contract cycles, need to explore and address growing threats, as well as to identify new horizons, using holistic and interdisciplinary approaches to succeed in uncertain environments. In order to obtain the objective for this thesis, a qualitative research approach has been adopted. The research strategy consists of three main parts; a literary review, contextual interviews with the case organization, and its surroundings as well as a Delphi study with foresight experts. This has resulted in a conceptual framework for long-term strategic foresight activities in a technology-intensive organization. The framework is divided into six different phases starting from framing and initial gathering of information and resulting in scenario-derived outputs that serve as input to the organizational strategy development.
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