Estimating the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on GNI in Greece and Iceland: A synthetic control approach

Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a comparative study in order to estimate the impact of the financial crisis to the GNI of Greece and Iceland. By applying synthetic control matching (a relatively new methodology) the study intends to compare the two countries, thus deducting conclusions about good or bad measures adopted. The results indicate that in both cases the adopted measures were not the optimal ones, since the synthetic counterfactual appear to perform better than the actual Greece and Iceland. Moreover, it is shown that Iceland reacted better to the shock it was exposed. However, different characteristics of the two countries impede the application of Icelandic actions in the Greek case.