Value at Risk : A comparison of Value at Risk models during the 2007/2008 financial crisis

University essay from Örebro universitet/Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet; Örebro universitet/Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet

Author: Malin Karlsson; Jonna Flodman; [2011]

Keywords: ;

Abstract: The financial crisis of 2007/2008 brought about a debate concerning the quality of risk management models, such as Value at Risk (VaR) models. Several studies have tried to make conclusions about multiple VaR models in periods around the crisis. The conclusions differ, but the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is considered to be a good prediction model in times of unstable financial markets.  In this thesis, the VaR for six financial instruments; the OMXS 30, the OMX Stockholm Financials PI, the OMX Stockholm Materials PI and the currencies USD/SEK, GBP/SEK and EUR/SEK are estimated with the Historical Simulation, the Monte Carlo Simulation and the Variance- Covariance Method, with a 95 percent confidence interval. The risk is estimated both for single instruments as well as portfolios in times before, during and after the crisis with the purpose of concluding which of the VaR models more accurately predict risk for specific instruments/portfolios in different time periods of the crisis.   No direct conclusions can be made about the accuracy of the models before, during or after the crisis. The only clear conclusion can be drawn for the single instruments regarding the EUR. All methods predict more accurate results for this instrument compared to the other instruments. The clearest conclusion for the portfolios is that portfolios holding larger weights of indexes show on larger VaR estimations. Also, the modified Monte Carlo Simulation and the Variance-Covariance Method estimate lower risk in general than the Historical Simulation.  

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