Comparison of Machine learningalgorithms on Predicting Churn withinMusic streaming service

Abstract: Background: Customer churn prediction is one of the most popular part of bigbusinesses and often help the companies in customer retention and revenue generation.Customer churn may lead to huge loss of revenue and is important to analyzeand determine the cause for churn. Moreover, it is easier to retain an existing customerrather than acquiring new clients.Therefore, to get a better understanding onchurn prediction, this research work focuses on finding the best performing machinelearning model after effective comparision among four machine learning models. Theresearch also gives a brief report of latest literature work done in churn analysis ofmusic streaming services. Objectives: In this thesis work, we aim to research about churn prediction done inmusic streaming services. We focus on two main objectives, first one includes literaturereview on the latest research work done in churn prediction of music streamingservices. Secondly, we aim in comparing the performance of four supervised machinelearning algorithms, to find out the best performing algorithm for churn prediction. Methods: This thesis involves two methods literature review and experimentationto answer our research questions. We chose to use literature review for RQ1 soit can give a better understanding on our selected problem and works as base workfor our research and helps in clear and better comprehension. Experimentation ischosen for RQ2 to to build and train the selected machine learning model to validatethe performance of algorithms. Experimentation is chosen because it gives betterresults and prediction compared to surveys and reviews. Results: We have selected four classification supervised machine learning algorithmsnamely, Logistic regression, Naive Bayes, KNN, and RF in this research.Upon experimentation and training the models using the algorithms with a preprocessingthe KKBox’s dataset, RF achieved highest accuracy of 97% compared toother models. Conclusions: We have trained four models using the four machine learning algorithmsfor the prediction of churn in music streaming service domain. Upon trainingthe models with the KKBox’s dataset and upon experimentation, we came to a conclusionthat RF has the best performance with better accuracy and AUC score.