House price and fertility behavior among different families - Empirical study from CFPS data

Abstract: This paper uses panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to examine the relationship between housing prices and fertility behavior in China, this paper analyzes sample data from 2014, 2016 and 2018 and uses Probit model and the logit model to study how house price affects fertility behavior among different families, furthermore, after the removal of One Child Policy, how the fertility behavior would react to house price. The study found that rising housing prices have a significant negative impact on fertility behavior, and that this negative impact persists even when using instrumental variables to control for endogeneity. The study also found that the impact of housing prices on fertility varies across different subgroups of the population, depending on factors such as the gender of the first child, whether the family is urban or rural, and the region of the country in which the family resides. Additionally, the study found that the impact of housing prices on fertility was significantly negative both before and after the removal of the One-Child Policy (OCP), but that this negative impact was even greater after the OCP was removed. Overall, these results suggest that high housing prices may be an important factor contributing to China's low fertility rates.