Trade diversification and changing food consumption patterns since the 2000s: The case of homogenizing diets globally and in the BRICS

Abstract: International agricultural trade has seen big developments throughout time, initially driven particularly by the industrial revolution and then influenced by globalization and changes in technology. Coupled with decreasing barriers to trade, the rise of trade agreements, and economic growth of countries, international influences are having big effects on food consumption patterns. In particular, with rising incomes and access to more markets, people tend to diversify their diets towards crops that are not traditionally produced domestically. Increased demand for more varieties requires countries to diversify their export and import relations in order to satisfy changing diets. Through computations of the Herfindahl index, a measure of trade diversification, this thesis studies changing food consumption patterns based on exchanges with diverse markets and with regards to different varieties of products, taking into account more than 150 countries, and 12 product categories. In particular, as the BRICS are generally shown to play a major role in global agricultural trade, they are going to be compared with different groups of countries based on income levels. The results largely confirm the trend towards diet diversification, and in particular for the BRICS, transformations towards more ‘westernized’ diets, more heavily based on animal products, which will continue to have enormous implications for the future of agriculture and sustainability.