An adjusted Fed-model for valuation of emerging stock markets

Abstract: This paper examines the possible relationship the earnings yield and long term government bond yield for a number of emerging markets. An adjusted Fed-model is used to judge whether stock prices are too high, too low or at their fair value. The paper examines the relationship between return, earnings yield and long term government bond yield as proposed by the adjusted Fedmodel. The difference between the earnings yield and real bond yield is a shorthand measure for expected returns and I examine the predictive power of this measure by regression analysis. The results show that, when it comes to forecasting returns, the model fails.