Exchange rate variation and inflation in Nigeria ( 1970 - 2007 )

Abstract: This study examines the impact of exchange rate on inflation in Nigeria economy between 1970 and 2007. We analyzed the trend of inflation and exchange rate in the last 38 years by evaluating the relationship between government expenditure, money supply, Oil revenue, exchange rate and inflation as the dependent variables. We adopted the Augmented Dickey- Fuller to carry out the unit root test and co integration with Johansen test. Our result shows that the individual variables are integrated order one, that is a unit root exist. This means that each variable tends to follow a random walk. On the other hand, inflation rate, exchange rate, oil revenue, government spending and money supply are co integrated. This revealed a strong relationship among the variables though inflation rate and exchange rate show no long term relationship, but short term relationship seems to exist between them.