Modeling demand for high speed rail in Sweden. : Private trips

Abstract: Nowadays, people face a series of choices every day, what kind of factors will influence their choices has become a research subject. People are always looking for the best choice which they benefit the most. In this project, the mode choices people face are car, bus, train and air. The study is focused on long distance intercity trips and high speed rail assessment. In the discrete choice model, the benefit of each choice is represented by the utility function of the corresponding characters and people’s preference. MNL model and NL model are built to estimated people’s choices towards mode choices and destination-mode choices. Models with respect to trip purposes, income and SP combined with RP are discussed. FASTBIOGEME and ALOGIT are used as tools to do the model estimation, validation and making forecast. Market share for different modes are forecasting according to different polices. Elasticity with respect to cost and travel time is discussed.