Food security and food sufficiency in Ethiopia and eastern Africa

Abstract: Food insecurity is a major problem in the developing countries of the world, where sub- Saharan and eastern Africa is some of the most affected areas. With rapid population growth and lack of means to adapt to a changing climate, the region is in the danger zone for famine. The aim of this paper is to examine the food situation in Ethiopia today, and how the climate change is predicted to affect the food security and food sufficiency in Sub-Saharan and Eastern Africa in the future. Six scenarios are presented with changes in cereal production in Eastern Africa, indicating food sufficiency by domestic cereal in 2030 and 2050. In the later part of the paper, solutions to achieve food security and food sufficiency are presented. Ethiopia is of particular concern when it comes to food security. With repeated famines during the 1990´s and 2000´s the country is particularly vulnerable for climate change and population growth. The agriculture is highly dependent on precipitation, only about 1 percent produced food comes from irrigated land, and with a projected increase in rainfall at fewer events in the future, the risk of drought is of major concern. The main cause of food insecurity is poverty; around 80 percent of the population is working in the agricultural sector in Ethiopia, and in years with insufficient precipitation, the workers are out of work. Early Warning System that forecasts drought and famine is when working a beneficial way to prepare a region for food insecurity and drought. But lack of communication and data exchange between different units in the management of Early Warning System has caused the food aid to come to late. Scenarios developed indicates a increase of 5 percent per year in cereal production to achieve food sufficiency for Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Kenya and Uganda in 2050, if every person of the population have access to 15 kg of cereals each month. To achieve food sufficiency, there are a variety of solutions suggested e.g. rainwater harvesting, irrigation, usage of more drought resistant crops, using manure as fertilizers, agroforestry and establishment of a well working Early Warning System for both famine and drought.