HOW IDEOLOGY AFFECTS GOVERNMENTS’ BEHAVIOUR : A STUDY ON WELL-ESTABLISHED ASSUMPTIONS

Abstract: This dissertation investigates the influence that the ideology of a states has in determining its relations with its peers. The study will be performed using a classic approach to international relations, with a focus on the dichotomy rivalry – non-rivalry, and a more modern method, classifying the variable in 5 classes. I will show that ideology is important when countries engage in friendly relations, while there is no evidence this covariation is present also regarding rivalries. The findings also suggest that countries following different ideologies tend to act differently, with states with stronger ideas being less pragmatical. I will also find support for part of the liberal theory, with democracies being particularly peaceful with each other, and the realist theory, with countries being close and economically powerful being more likely to engage in extreme relations. Finally, I will use random forests to make predictions, showing my model is capable of being extremely accurate in predicting relations between states.