Revision Moment for the Retail Decision-Making System

Abstract: In this work we address to the problems of the loan origination decision-making systems. In accordance with the basic principles of the loan origination process we considered the main rules of a clients parameters estimation, a change-point problem for the given data and a disorder moment detection problem for the real-time observations. In the first part of the work the main principles of the parameters estimation are given. Also the change-point problem is considered for the given sample in the discrete and continuous time with using the Maximum likelihood method. In the second part of the work the disorder moment detection problem for the real-time observations is considered as a disorder problem for a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The corresponding optimal stopping problem is reduced to the free-boundary problem with a complete analytical solution for the case when the intensity of defaults increases. Thereafter a scheme of the real time detection of a disorder moment is given.