Local Public Actors’ Flood Risk Perceptions and the Connection to Flood Risk Management : A Comparative Case Study of the Municipalities of Karlstad and Kristinehamn

Abstract: The frequency and severity of floods have increased due to climate change and achieving successful disaster risk reduction is deemed crucial to attain preparedness and sustainability. The responsibility for society’s preparedness mainly resides with local public actors. However, several Swedish municipalities have insufficient flood risk management. Research within disaster risk reduction suggests that risk can be understood as socially constructed and produced, highlighting the relevance of exploring risk perceptions. Yet, previous research has mostly been concerned with objective dimensions of risk and largely neglected social dimensions, such as decision-makers’ risk perceptions. Ridolfi and colleagues’ theoretical contribution to Cultural Theory of Risk suggests four types of ideal societies, or perceptions, which ultimately affect flood risk management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying, and risk controlling perceptions. Yet, the theoretical work has not been applied empirically. This study aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of local public actors’ perceptions of flood risk and how this in turn may be connected to different flood risk management strategies. This thesis adopts a comparative case study design and explores the topic by applying Ridolfi and colleagues’ theoretical contribution to the municipalities of Karlstad and Kristinehamn. While Kristinehamn has been criticized for insufficient flood risk management, Karlstad has been put forward as a front runner in disaster risk reduction. Surprisingly, the results show that the municipalities reason in similar ways about flood risk, suggesting that the proposed differences between the two may be overestimated. Both municipalities believe in the capacity of technical hard-adaptive measures manipulating the environment and thus largely correspond to the risk controlling perception. However, the municipalities differ in some respects, as it can be argued that Karlstad shows signs of a risk monitoring perception whereas Kristinehamn shows signs of a risk neglecting or downplaying perception, potentially shedding light on the slightly varying approaches. In essence, the study’s utilization of the theory indicates that decision-makers’ subjective risk perceptions are important to explore in order to understand flood risk management approaches and subsequently important processes to achieve overall preparedness and sustainability. By exploring municipal actors’ perceptions of flood risk, the study not only contributes empirically by applying mentioned theoretical contribution for the first time, but also adds to the wider body of the theoretical knowledge on the significance of decision-makers’ risk perception for risk reduction, and thus contributes to a better understanding of the social dimensions of risk.