On the Market Potential of Modular Stirling CSP Systems With Storage in the MENA

Abstract: Given the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, integrated storage solutions are necessary to accomplish the energy shift necessary for sustainable development. In the case of solar, PV-BESS tend to be highly capital intensive, especially for long storage hours most needed to guarantee stable electricity production day and night. This study presents a methodology to quantify the market potential for a novel distributed CSP technology with cost competitive thermal energy technology, where the cost target is 30% cheaper than PV-BESS. The system in question is similar to the one developed by Cleanergy AB, where a 13 kW Stirling engine is powered by heat collected from a heliostat field and stored in an integrated latent heat storage unit. Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are chosen as representative countries of the MENA for the study. The study is done by detailed investigation of the macro-environment of each country, developing a methodology to rank identified business opportunities. Said opportunities are restricted to companies within the industrial sector, based on the assumption that such customers would be interested in a solution guarantying stable electricity production. First, a techno-economical optimisation is done to find optimal plant configurations to service a particular energy need for each business opportunity. Second, the multi-criteria analysis scores and ranks the latter with respected to different criteria that can be conflicting. Finally, the top business opportunity identified by the MCA in each country are compared through a scenario analysis, assuming different rates at which the electricity generated by the system can be sold. With a global market potential above 40 GW in the whole MENA, industrial sectors such as mining and cement hold the best prospects in terms of market share. The achievable costs of generation vary depending on the DNI of the sites considered but prove to be lower compared with conventional distributed generation (diesel gensets or PV-BESS). However, several countries in the MENA, although having high DNI resource, still offer low electricity utility prices to industrial customers for distributed CSP to become competitive with on-grid electricity procurement. Hence, Jordan is ranked first with the MCA, both because of the high DN in the country, and its high electricity rates, despite having the smallest market share in terms of capacity to install. The amount of subsidies necessary for the technology to be profitable and cons competitive were found respectively. Except in Jordan where the system is competitive with utility rates, all other countries needs to implement feed-in-tariffs schemes for distributed CSP with storage to become viable. The observed trend of increasing electricity prices in the MENA however, coupled with decreasing LCOE values due to high volumes of production indicate that economic viability in the countries with low present rates can be achieved in the future.