The Price of Uranium : an Econometric Analysis and Scenario Simulations

Abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to analyze: (a) the determinants of the global price of uranium; and (b) how this price could be affected by different nuclear power generation scenarios for 2030. To do this a multivariable regression analysis will be used. Within the model, the price of uranium is the dependent variable and the independent variables are generated nuclear power electricity representing demand (GWh), price of coal as a substitute to generated nuclear power electricity, and the price of oil representing uranium production costs. The empirical results show that generated nuclear electricity and the oil price, to be statistically significant at the 5 percent level. The coal price was not however a statistically significant. The scenarios for 2030 are three possible nuclear power generation demand cases; high, medium and low demand. The results for the high demand generated a price of 255 US$/kg and the medium demand 72US$/kg.