Exploring Scenario Planning Processes - Differences and similarities

Abstract: In this changing world it is very useful for organizations as well as for governments to be able to adapt and anticipate future events. Scenario planning is a method which can be used for organizations and governments to better manage this rapid and complex environment, since scenario planning creates plausible and possible future scenarios. The process of this method has been studied in this thesis. The purpose of this thesis is to identify differences and similarities between three different processes. The authors of these three processes are Mats Lindgren and Hans Bandhold, Royal Dutch/Shell and Peter Schwartz. Firstly the processes are presented, and after the differences and similarities between them are studied. The comparisons are made one to one, that is: Kairos Future’s process vs. Shell’s process; Kairos Future’s process vs. Schwartz’s process; Shell’s process vs. Schwartz’s process. From the comparison of these processes it can be observed that scenario planning has essential tasks which are common in the three processes. Also it is observed that the main differences between the processes are according to the sequence of these tasks and the way to develop them.