Truck electrification : Trends and impacts on the energy system

Abstract: In line with the Paris agreement, Sweden has set up a national emission reduction target for the transport sector; to reduce the emissions by 70% by 2030, relative to levels in 2010. This entails that large shares of road transport will be electrified, including shares of the national truck fleet. In parallel with this, the Swedish transmission grid suffers from power capacity shortages, limiting the amount of electricity that can be distributed to a regional and local level, especially in urban areas, such as Stockholm. In line with this, the aim of this thesis is to investigate the trends of truck electrification in the Stockholm region and to assess its potential impact on the electrical grid based on truck operation characteristics. To achieve this, three objectives were set; to investigate truck fleet operators’ operations and view in relation to electrification, examine truck manufacturers' views on truck electrification and to analyse the truck electrification’s potential impact on the electrical grid in future scenarios. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used to fulfil the research objectives including interviews and casestudy modelling. The results from the interviews show that both manufacturers and truck fleet operators see the electrical grid and deployment of charging infrastructure, as well as the economy of the electric truck as the main barriers to overcome in relation to truck electrification. The truck manufacturers have taken on a leading role and are together with early adopters pushing the development forward. Nonetheless, they cannot create all the right conditions themselves, as for instance charging opportunities in relation to the electric grid is a complex problem. The industry agreed upon that city transports will be electrified first followed by regional transport and lastly long-distance transport. Furthermore, 2030 was identified as a key year for truck electrification. Finally, manufacturers and truck fleet operators urge the government to act and implement necessary measures to support the transition. The results from the case-study modelling show that lunchtime charging of city transport coincides with already critical hours for the electrical grid. Moreover, the afternoon charging of city, regional and long-distance transports generates a peak during the most critical hour around 6 PM, implying that it could entail challenges for an already congested grid. In line with this, proper night-time charging is considered as crucial both from an operational (in terms of minimising the daily stops) and grid point of view (in terms of avoiding grid congestion during critical hours). In addition, it is recommended to prioritise charging of long-distance transport during the day as they often are operative around-the-clock. Although this study resulted in general charging profiles, this gives a good indication on what impact the truck electrification might have on the electrical grid. Furthermore, it gives a general picture of how the electrification of trucks could play out in Stockholm, which can be applied in other urban areas in Sweden that are facing similar challenges.