Reliability prediction of electronic products combining models, lab testing and field data analysis

University essay from KTH/Skolan för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT)

Abstract: At present there are different reliability standards that are being used for carrying out reliability prediction. They take into consideration different factors, environments and data sources to give reliability data for a wide range of electronic components. However, the users are not aware of the differences between the different reliability standards due to the absence of benchmarks of the reliability standards that would help classify and compare between them. This lack of benchmark denies the users the opportunity to have a top-down view of these different standards and choose the appropriate standard based on qualitative judgement in performing reliability prediction for a specific system. To addres this issue, the benchmark of a set of reliability standards are developed in this dissertation. The benchmark helps the users of the selected reliability standards understand the similarities and differences between them and based on the evaluation criterion defined can easily choose the appropriate standard for reliability prediction in different scenarios. Theoretical reliability prediction of two electronic products in Bombardier is performed using the standards that have been benchmarked. One of the products is matured with available incident report from the field while the other is a new product that is under development and yet to enter in service. The field failure data analysis of the matured product is then compared and correlated to the theoretical prediction. Adjustment factors are then derived to help bridge the gap between the theoretical reliability prediction and the reliability of the product in field conditions. Since the theoretical prediction of the product under development could not be used to compare and correlate any data due to unavailability, instead, the accelerated life test is used to find out the product reliability during its lifetime and find out any failure modes intrinsic to the board. A crucial objective is realized as an appropriate algorithm/model is found in order to correlate accelerated test temperature-cycles to real product temperature-cycles. The PUT has lead-free solder joints, hence, to see if any failures occurring due to solder joint fatigue has also been of interest. Additionally, reliability testing simulation is a performed in order to verify and validate the performance of the product under development during ALT. Finally, the goal of the thesis is achieved as separate models are proposed to predict product reliability for both matured products and products under development. This will assist the organization in realizing the goal of predicting their product reliability with better accuracy and confidence.

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