Renewable energy outlook for the Drina River Basin countries

Abstract: The Drina River Basin (DRB) plays a vital role for the power sectors of the riparian countries of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. The Drina river and its tributaries have a considerable hydropower potential, which, due to its geographical position and the political landscape between the riparian countries, have not yet been utilized to its full potential. This study aims to investigate the role of hydropower and other renewables in the future energy mix under different scenarios. Additionally, the study aims to examine the renewable energy penetration within the DRB, as well as changes in total CO2eq emissions from the power sector by 2035. The study describes the implementation and testing of a modelling framework with the purpose of analysing the future energy mix. To answer the key research questions, an energy model was created using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Input parameters for the model were obtained through information gathering based on literature reviews, interviews with local experts and reviews of policy documents. The scenario analysis includes a business as usual scenario (BAU), a nationally determined contribution scenario (NDC), renewable energy scenario (RE) and a sensitivity analysis based on three different levels of implementation of the emission trading scheme (ETS). The results indicate that the share of hydropower differ amongst the scenarios, ranging between 41% and 55% by 2035. The scenario results also show that the share of RES located within the DRB ranges between 45-58% by 2035, in relation to the total installed RES capacity in the basin countries. This high share of economically feasible RES potential highlights the importance of the DRB, particularly since the basin area accounts for approximately 12,8% of the total country area. Furthermore, the obtained resultsfrom the scenario analysis indicate the possibility of emission reductions between 7% and 50 % by 2035, compared to the BAU scenario emissions.