Future Impacts of Variable Renewable Power Production : An analysis of future scenarios effects on electricity supply and demand

Abstract: Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need.  For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.