Understanding the Future of a Large Technical Systems : Trends and drivers of Swedish residential water usage

Abstract: Understanding the future of a Large Technical System (LTS) through a sociotechnical analysis is a complex notion. The authors will investigate the phenomenon by studying residential water consumption in Sweden. Although Sweden has great access to raw water, compared to many other countries, it does not justify the fact that consumption patterns have to be unsustainable. To perceive the future, one will need to have knowledge of history. Therefore, this thesis has identified 11 drivers that will affect future residential water consumption. From these 11 drivers, the authors have posed four future scenarios for residential water consumption. The top 3 identified drivers are connected to behaviour and awareness. Thus, implying individuals' responsibility and accountability will be of greater significance for the sustainable development of residential water consumption. For this research, the authors have adopted a framework based on the application of LTS, Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), Scenario building, PESTLE, and Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). The authors have conducted a qualitative study, gathering data through a literature study and semi-structured interviews. The 18 interviewees covered a broad spectrum of knowledge, experiences, and general interest in water. By understanding the dynamics of the system and drivers, the authors will be able to present the gathered knowledge to stakeholders for possible strategic decisions.