Modelling the energy demand for transport in Sub-Saharan Africa : World Energy Outlook as a Case Study

Abstract: Energy demand projections are essential tools that enable policymakers, engineers, scientists, stakeholders and investors to assess the future energy needs of a country and understand the technical, economic, social and environmental costs associated with meeting this demand. Such tools become further indispensable in the case of developing countries, where past consumption trends alone cannot indicate the trajectory of their future energy demand. Transport is one of the largest consumers of energy among all the end-use sectors. In 2018, it accounted for almost 29% of the total final consumption (TFC) of energy and 65% of oil consumption in the world [1]. A key ingredient for economic growth, mobility is indispensable for access to employment, education, health care and other services and operating industrial and trade activities. This report describes an energy demand model of the transport sector for selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The countries modelled are Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania. With the exception of South Africa, the transport sector in the focus countries is largely underdeveloped and outdated. Road transport dominates the energy demand for transport in the region today and this trend is projected to continue to 2040. The ownership of cars increases rapidly, especially in cities, but this growth starts from very low levels as the region is home to countries with the lowest ownership rates in the world. As in the case of emerging Asian economies, the fleet of two- and three-wheelers growsiiifaster than that of cars and a significant share of this growth comes from rural areas. Aviation is the largest non-road consumer of energy and this continues to 2040 as a consequence of rising GDP and rapid urbanisation. Rail and navigation lag behind current global levels but are projected to develop significantly to aid in achieving the industrialisation goals set out by the African Agenda 2063. In its current state, the sector faces major challenges like inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure, dealing with increasing traffic congestion in cities, large-scale imports of second-hand vehicles with poor emission standards that affect air quality in cities, lack of safe and formally operated public transportation systems and insufficient consideration for the different mobility needs of women. Sound policymaking and investments in infrastructure have the potential to overcome or significantly reduce the severity of most of these challenges in the future.