Uncertainty management – How to handle project uncertainty : A case study at Rimaster Development
Abstract: We know that it is difficult to forecast the future, and the same applies to project management. There are a lot of occurrences that are both predictable and not possible throughout the course of a project. The management of uncertainty is a management method that helps to forecast and adjust to future occurrences. In this context, frameworks and tools have been created to help project managers genuinely understand a project's potential. The study was conducted as a case study at Rimaster Development in Söderhamn and aimed at discovering sources of uncertainty within their project development that affect project performance. The study is built on both quantitative and qualitative data gathering from a workshop, survey, meetings, and interviews from ten different projects of Rimaster. The study had five respondents who contributed with two projects, each of which they had been a part of previously, one classified as uncertain and one as more certain. The data were analyzed with the statistics tool SPSS, where variables were computed based on the empirical findings in the uncertainty survey. The result was then presented through uncertainty attribute matrices to identify how each project performed in relation to customer satisfaction as well as time plan and budget. Here, dependent variables were tested, such as if the uncertainty score (the higher value, the more uncertain is the project) influenced project performance. From the data, two categories of projects could be developed: Higher performing projects and lower performing projects. To this, significant analysis of the performance groups was performed to find parameters that were significantly different between the categories. To capture more data to the thesis, each project was then evaluated through an individual project analysis which consisted of analyzing the data from the survey more closely for each project. The findings from this were then supported with qualitative interviews. The findings in the study suggest that there is a relationship between project uncertainty and lower-performing projects in relationship to time plan and budget. Further, sixteen uncertainty parameters showed to have a significant value in the comparison between higher and lower performing projects. Based upon the data and the analysis of the study, managerial recommendations have been provided to Rimaster on tools and development processes that may assist the organization's uncertainty management and increase their project performance.
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