Antaganden i riskutredningar vid fysisk planering med avseende på transport av farligt gods och deras effekt på riskbilden

University essay from Lunds universitet/Riskhantering (CI)

Abstract: Risk assessments regarding transportation of dangerous goods are a vital part of land-use planning. This is regulated by laws and regulations to ensure that risk levels are acceptable. Thus, it is of interest to the general public that these risk assessments are as accurate as possible. However, the establishment of these risk assessments tend to be somewhat problematic. Information may be inadequate, calculation models used are a simplification of reality, and the input parameters are subject to uncertainties. Due to this, assumptions are made when assessing and calculating risk levels. In this master thesis, the effect of these assumptions are examined and quantified. The results showed that the risk levels varied with approximately two orders of magnitude due to the uncertainties associated with the input data. In relation to conventional risk acceptance criteria, this variation can cause a risk assessment to reach different conclusions as a result of the different assumptions that are made.

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