Price transmission in the Swedish wheat market and implications on a structural shock in demand

University essay from SLU/Dept. of Economics

Abstract: This thesis is evaluating price transmission patterns in the Swedish market for feeding and milling wheat. This is done to identify if a market shock - that occured in one region 2008 - had had a significant impact on other regional prices. After reviewing Literature and Methods, a Vector Error Correction approach is used to estimate elasticities and speed of adjustment, to see how prices react. Using differential analysis, a specific structural shock in demand is evaluated to see if the relative prices with a reference price changed. The shock has been the expansion of an ethanol-plant in the region Norrköping that increased its demand by 300% to 597.000 tons of milling wheat. The analysis is going to show, that under certain assumptions a price increase of 80 – 110 SEK/ton for the different qualities can be determined.

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