Energy sources of the future – an explorative scenario analysis of Sweden’s energy security in regard to present energy policy

Abstract: Energy has always been an essential commodity, vital for a well-functioning society. Since, the industrialization has fossil fuels been used as man’s main energy source. Consequently, vast amounts of emissions have spread into earth’s atmosphere and lead to an unprecedently quick global warming. Governments are today reacting to climate change, and energy policies to limit the effects are developed. Sweden has since year 2008 established energy policy targets to reduce its emissions. This report looks into outcomes of Swedish energy policy by forecasting scenarios to measure target achievement and effects on Swedish energy security. Energy security has historically been dominated by geopolitical issues and oil, however, today the term has grown to encompass secure access to energy services at a sufficiently low and stable price, in a way that is socially and environmentally acceptable compared to other energy options. Thus, energy security in this report is understood as ‘Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’. From this definition are forecasted scenarios developed and analyzed towards an energy security framework consisting of three subcategorize, affordability, reliability and sustainability. The scenarios are made by linear, exponential and logistic trendlines, to cover different expansion patterns. The general outcome of the scenarios suggests that energy security as defined will become more sustainable and reliable at the cost of affordability for energy consumers. However, even though sustainability is increasing are some of the energy policy targets not likely to succeed if business continues as usual.