Fuzzy risk assessment for construction projects : with focus on farm-based grain drying facilities

Abstract: This study examines the economic risks of building a grain drying facility. Establishment of a grain drying facility is a construction with a high level of customized specific solutions. It hampers the quantification of the risks in the projects, since it makes it hard to gather historical data. The study is conducted in conjunction with Akronmaskiner AB, a Swedish company that manufactures and develops grain drying facilities which have had a strong demand for a study in the area. In the study a model has been developed to create an assessment of the building process of a turnkey drying facility. Because of the lack of statistical data in this specific subject the study has been conducted with help of fuzzy theories. The fuzzy data is collected through a questionnaire which is set towards companies responsible for the construction of Akron’s drying facilities. The respondents have determined how long it takes to assemble the specific components of a drying facility. To test and verify the authentic of the study, the model has been tested against a previously installed drying facility, where the outcome between the model and the reality has been compared. The study indicates that the model improves the predictability of the costs of building a grain drying facility. Thereby the risks related to the assembly process can be captured and the uncertainties of the projects lowered which by better management of the risks are possible to reduce. The thesis also leaves a smaller analysis of the risks in these projects and how they should be handled and decreased which would be beneficial for all stakeholders in the market. During the study´s survey, the main risks around the building process of a drying facility are quantified and it shows that largest costs in the process are related to the building shell and conveyors.