Scandinavian Intelligence Services and Threat Perceptions of Russia

Abstract: Russia has since the beginning of the Cold War been a security problem and a threat to the Scandinavian countries, this considered by the countries' respective intelligence service, actors that are analysing Russia and the threat to the countries. However, information about Russia as a threat from the intelligence services' own perspective has so far been limited to information related to the Cold War period. This study thus aims to fill the research gap that exists on how intelligence services currently view Russia and contribute to more knowledge about how they view the threat from Russia, through their annual reports concerning the years 2012-2019. These annual reports are published by the intelligence services and describe their focus areas. This thesis uses a qualitative method to study the annual reports. To analyse what emerged from the annual reports, three different analytical frameworks are used: Buzan’s expanded security concept, the regional security complex theory and the balance of threat theory. What has emerged from examining these annual reports is that the threat from Russia has become increasingly complex and that Russia today and in contrast to the Cold War period, operates not only in the traditional military and political sector, but also in the economic and the societal sector. Based on the intelligence services' annual reports, Russia has increased as a threat and affects more regions concerning the security than its own. In order to be able to fully understand Scandinavia's region and security, Russia as a threat to the countries must be included. Sweden has not chosen to respond to the threat from Russia by joining NATO, where both Denmark and Norway are already members. The three Scandinavian countries have responded to the threat from Russia by increasing their focus on the national defence.