EU-Russia Energy Scenarios to 2025 - Energy Security and Political Risk Management

Abstract: The objective of this essay is to map the possible future scenarios of energy relations between the European Union (EU), the world’s biggest energy market, and Russia, the world’s largest producer. The security of energy supply is essential to the functioning of the EU. Energy security, therefore, is a highly politicized subject that has divided European capitals for decades and will, ceteris paribus, continue to do so during decades to come. The EU therefore needs to understand in which directions the energy relationship to Russia might evolve and what political risks might be associated with these directions. To be able to meet this challenge I have utilized the scenario-based methodology employed by Royal Dutch Shell (Shell) in the making of the ‘Global Scenarios to 2025’. I analyze the current state of relations and research the overall trends and critical uncertainties forming the future. This leads me to present three plausible and contrasted futures which describe complex trade-offs between state, market and community forces and what implications they may have on EU’s energy security. The scenarios can be used as a tool to understand energy security during the coming 15 years.