Premium influencing factors in life assurance : Study of an income parameter in mortality analysis

University essay from KTH/Matematisk statistik

Author: Pontus Waltré; [2017]

Keywords: ;

Abstract: The expected lifetime is steadily increasing in Sweden and the World. As the increase will eventually level out the question is: at what level will the expected lifetime be then? The outlook for or searching after factors and assumptions that can influence mortality in life insurance, are principally missing. This despite the awareness that lifestyle and sickness greatly affects the lifespan. There were two aims for this thesis. The first aim was to look into the hypothesis that there were more parameters than just gender and age that could be important to consider when doing mortality studies. The second goal was to analyse the spread of mortality to get a better understanding within a group how the mortality behaves and how low it could get. For realize these goals I’ve analysed the deaths within a certain population during three year, 2010-2012, depending on an income parameter. The least square approach was used to calculate estimated parameters of the Makeham mortality model. The non-parametric bootstrap model was then further used to estimate the accuracy. The results show that with a confidence level of 1 %, there is a lower expected lifetime at the age of 30 for the first income quantile than the fourth.

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