Selection into Internal Migration. Evidence from Brazil.

Abstract: This thesis investigates internal migrant selection and migrant sorting among the Brazilian working age population between 2007 and 2014. The study tests the validity of the Borjas model, that predicts variation in migration probability across education levels. A twofold empirical analysis is performed. In the first step, a logit model is used to analyze migrant selection. The results suggest that there exists a positive selection into internal migration. In the second one, the sorting of migrants across Brazils greater regions is modelled with a multinomial logit model. The results of this model are in contradiction with predictions of the Borjas model since high school and university graduates are most likely to move to the South and Southeast even though these regions do not offer the highest return to education. Differences between actual and predicted migrant sorting can be attributed to regional disparities in income and education.