Evaluation of StochSD for Epidemic Modelling, Simulation and Stochastic Analysis

Abstract: Classical Continuous System Simulation (CSS) is restricted to modelling continuous flows, and therefore, cannot correctly realise a conceptual model with discrete objects. The development of Full Potential CSS solves this problem by (1) handling discrete quantities as discrete and continuous matter as continuous, (2) preserving the sojourn time distribution of a stage, (3) implementing attributes correctly, and (4) describing different types of uncertainties in a proper way. In order to apply Full Potential CSS a new software, StochSD, has been developed. This thesis evaluates StochSD's ability to model Full Potential CSS, where the points 1-4 above are included. As a test model a well-defined conceptual epidemic model, which includes all aspects of Full Potential CSS, was chosen. The study was performed by starting with a classical SIR model and then stepwise add the different aspects of the Conceptual Model. The effects of each step were demonstrated in terms of size and duration of the epidemic. Finally, the conceptual model was also realised as an Agent Based Model (ABM). The results from 10 000 replications each of the CSS and ABM models were compared and no statistical differences could be confirmed. The conclusion is that StochSD passed the evaluation.