Bottleneck analysis and throughput estimation for gearbox manufacturing

Abstract: This simulation study was carried out at a company in the automotive industry. In their factory, the company manufactures gearboxes, where the gearbox assembly is one step in the manufacturing process. In the main assembly line, many different gearbox variants are manufactured, each with its own cycle time in the different assembly stations. Due to this variation in cycle times the throughput in the main assembly line can fluctuate depending on which gearbox variants are produced. To maintain a desired throughput a tool for forecasting the throughput would be of great value to the company. Due to the large number of gearbox variants, the company also experiences difficulties understanding if there are stations in the assembly which are recurring bottlenecks. The purpose of this project is to create a tool that can forecast the daily throughput of the main assembly line and identify bottlenecks in the main assembly line. The purpose is also to investigate whether some stations often are bottleneck stations during a certain period. The model evaluation was based on validation of input-output-transformation. A bottleneck analysis based on the active times of the stations was carried out with the best-performing model. The best-performing model version resulted in 68 percent valid forecasts for the 57 historical production days. The forecasts were valid for all historical production days which were Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. For Fridays and Sundays, 25 and 0 percent were valid, respectively. A bottleneck analysis was carried out for 37 historical production days where the result showed that, based on the share of active time, a single station was identified as the bottleneck station for all days. The difference between the bottleneck station’s share of active time and other stations’ share of active time was deemed small enough to be within the error margin. Additionally, the queues in the main assembly line indicated that the bottleneck was located within another group of stations. Due to the ambiguity of the results, the conclusion drawn was that the main assembly line did not experience any clear bottleneck station during the 37 historical production days.