A scenario study on end-of-life tyre management in 2020

Abstract: With a large amount of tyres being discarded every year, the question of how to manage the end-of-life tyres (ELTs) has become a serious issue. Thus this study identifies different driving forces for this management and the most possible scenarios for the future management of ELTs. The study also compares the business as usual model with a waste hierarchy model to explore the possibilities for optimizing management of ELTs through cascading. This study collects opinions about the driving forces of ELT management from 29 experts working in the area. Important driving forces identified were: price of substitute products, recycled materials’ market, environmental legislation, and technology. This study also surveys 23 experts in the tyre area about the most possible scenarios for ELTs in 2020. One of the more believed in futures was: “Due to increasingly limited fossil fuels and a rise of sustainability awareness, applications for ELTs are growing both in material and energy recycling.” This suggests that a shift toward an equal recycling situation of ELTs among material and energy might be likely to happen by 2020. Based on the most possible scenario for ELTs in 2020, a comparison between waste hierarchy model and business as usual model has been performed. The result shows that the (cascading) waste hierarchy model would likely create more environmental benefits than business as usual model. This is done though the saving and cycling of more materials from energy recovery into material recycling.