Utilizing Hybrid Ensemble Prediction Model In Order to Predict Energy Demand in Sweden : A Machine-Learning Approach

University essay from KTH/Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS)

Abstract: Conventional machine learning (ML) models and algorithms are constantly advancing at a fast pace. Most of this development are due to the implementation of hybrid- and ensemble techniques that are powerful tools to complement and empower the efficiency of the algorithms. At the same time, the development and demand for renewable energy sources are rapidly increasing driven by political and environmental issues in which failure to act fast enough, could lead to an existential crisis. With the phasing of non-renewable to renewable energy sources, new challenges arise due to its intermittent and variable nature. Accurate forecasting techniques plays a crucial role in addressing these challenges. In this thesis, I present a hybrid ensemble machine learning model based upon stacking, utilizing a Gradient Boosted Tree as a meta-learner to predict the energy demand for the energy area SE3 in Sweden. The Hybrid model is based on three composite models: XGBoost, CatBoost and Random Forest (RF); utilizing only features extracted from the timeseries data. For training and testing the proposed Hybrid model, hourly demand load data was gathered from Svenska Kraftnät, measuring energy consumption for the energy area SE3 from year 2016-2021. The forecasting results of the models are measured using a regression score (R-squared, which measures Explained Variance) and Accuracy (measured in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error). The result shows that in an experimental setting, the Hybrid model reaches a R-squared score of 0.9785 and an accuracy of 97.85%. When utilized for day-ahead prediction on unseen data outside of the scope of the training dataset, the Hybrid model reaches a R-squared score of 0.9764 and an Accuracy of 93.43%. This thesis concludes that the proposed methodology can be utilized to accurately predict the variance in the energy demand and can serve as a framework to decision makers in order to accurately predict the energy demand in Sweden.

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