How Will the Geopolitics in Assam, Shaped by Religious Mobilization, Affect Bilateral Relations Between India and Bangladesh?

Abstract: Religious polarization and its impact on foreign policy in South Asia is a severely underrepresented area of research amongst International Relations scholars. As the nominal hegemon of the region, the transformation of India’s foreign policy into one that prioritizes domestic goals and incorporates ‘civilizational’ conceptions of religion will have a profound impact on its relationships with its neighbors, and stability in the region. This thesis assumes a predictive role by investigating the impact of ethnoreligious polarization and the geopolitics of Assam on the future of bilateral relations between India and Bangladesh. Two interconnected arguments are submitted here. First, the transnational impact of Hindutva politics in India will lead to increased violence on the borderlands of Assam and Bangladesh. Second, the non-state ethnoreligious political elite in India and Bangladesh have – through political influence in their countries – engaged in the form of a transnational communal conflict involving the systematic persecution of minorities. To strengthen the evidential weight of the claims made in this thesis, I have adopted a combination of the Discourse HistoricalApproach of the CDA, and Process Tracing - a type of case study analysis that focuses on empirical events. My findings indicate that despite cordial foreign relations, bilateral relations between the neighboring countries are set to deteriorate in the years to come. Further, violence on the borderlands of Assam – in the face of the implementation of CAA – is expected torise.