The Swedish energy system and the role of hydrogen : a modelling study of the energy and transport sector

Abstract: In light of the ongoing climate change dilemma, and the consequences that a failure to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions to a stable level will most likely induce, there is an overwhelming consensus among scientists and political leaders that actions are necessary to ensure that adaptation and mitigation options are secured. The European Union, as well as the Swedish government, agrees with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Conference of Parties that a reduction of the fossil fuel dependency is essential. In respect of this, the concept of a hydrogen economy has been around as a promising solution to the current challenges that the energy systems faces, e.g. an increasing amount of renewable intermittent capacity.  This is calling for smart grids, demand side management and storage solutions. Hydrogen as an energy carrier can serve multiple purposes, as an energy storage for variable generation as well as a fuel for both the industry and the transport sector. Currently, there have been a few incentives to develop these so-called power-to-gas and power-to-power energy chains; however, progress is still slow. Before major investments can be seen in this technology, the potential will have to be evaluated thoroughly. In this thesis, the hydrogen potential costs and environmental benefits are assessed through energy modelling in the cost optimisation analytical tool OSeMOSYS (Open Source energy Modelling SYStem). Specifically, through scenario development, the potential use of hydrogen as fuel for passenger cars and buses has been analysed. The results show that although there is some potential for hydrogen use in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), the transition will be expensive and slow. Yet, a large reduction of emissions due to the shift from fossil fuels in the transport sector still makes hydrogen a relevant energy carrier to consider for the future. Continued efforts to assess the potential synergies of interconnecting the different energy sectors are necessary to understand its full potential.