Unequal Hunger : Pathways to Armed Conflict Onset

Abstract: In many conflict-ridden countries, food insecurity prevails. However, the relationship between food insecurity and armed conflict onset is a complex one, and scholarly attention has increasingly been directed towards furthering our understanding of its nature. In this study, the proposition is brought forth that the effect of food insecurity on armed conflict onset should be contingent on certain features of the economic, social and political environment. Specifically, it suggests that (i) food insecurity should increase the risk of armed conflict onset by generating deprivation in absolute terms, and (ii) that the risk should be heightened when such insecurity disproportionally affects certain groups in society. The latter point pertains to the level of horizontal inequality – i.e. inequality at the group level –, the presence of which is expected to compound the risk of food insecurity leading to armed conflict onset by adding a relative dimension of deprivation to the absolute. A logistic regression analysis is employed using global data for the years 1961 to 2009. The findings do not support the hypothesized relationship. Rather, although food insecurity does increase the risk of armed conflict in cases where the level of horizontal political inequality is low, it decreases the risk in cases where it is high. This indicates that the impact of food insecurity on the risk of armed conflict indeed is contingent on certain features of the political environment, which calls for conditionality to increasingly be taken into account in future research on the relationship between food insecurity and armed conflict onset.